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lectures/french_rev.md

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@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ Some of those theories about monetary and fiscal policies still interest us toda
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* mathematics involving compound interest governed French government debt dynamics in the decades preceding 1789; according to leading historians, that arithmetic set the stage for the French Revolution
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* a **real bills** theory of the effects of government open market operations in which the government *backs* new issues of paper money with government holdings of valuable real property or financial assets that holders of money can purchase from the government in exchange for their money.
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* a *real bills* theory of the effects of government open market operations in which the government *backs* new issues of paper money with government holdings of valuable real property or financial assets that holders of money can purchase from the government in exchange for their money.
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* The Revolutionaries learned about this theory from Adam Smith's 1776 book The Wealth of Nations
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{cite}`smith2010wealth` and other contemporary sources
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Eighteenth-century British fiscal policy portrayed Figure {numref}`fr_fig2` thus looks very much like a text-book example of a *tax-smoothing* model like Robert Barro's {cite}`Barro1979`.
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A striking feature of the graph is what we'll lagel a *law of gravity* between tax collections and government expenditures.
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A striking feature of the graph is what we'll label a *law of gravity* between tax collections and government expenditures.
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* levels of government expenditures at taxes attract each other
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* while they can temporarily differ -- as they do during wars -- they come back together when peace returns
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* sell the church lands
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* use the proceeds from those sales to service or even retire French government debt
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The monetary theory underlying this plan had been set out by Adam Smith in his analysis of what he called **real bills** in his 1776 book
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The monetary theory underlying this plan had been set out by Adam Smith in his analysis of what he called *real bills* in his 1776 book
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**The Wealth of Nations** {cite}`smith2010wealth`, which many of the revolutionaries had read.
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Adam Smith defined a **real bill** as a paper money note that is backed by a claims on a real asset like productive capital or inventories.
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Adam Smith defined a *real bill* as a paper money note that is backed by a claims on a real asset like productive capital or inventories.
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The National Assembly put together an ingenious institutional arrangement to implement this plan.
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We interpret
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these three episodes in terms of distinct theories
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* a **backing** or **real bills** theory (the classic text for this theory is Adam Smith {cite}`smith2010wealth`)
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* a *backing* or *real bills* theory (the classic text for this theory is Adam Smith {cite}`smith2010wealth`)
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* a legal restrictions theory ( {cite}`keynes1940pay`, {cite}`bryant1984price` )
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* a classical hyperinflation theory ({cite}`Cagan`)
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*
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* subperiod 1: ("**real bills** period): January 1791 to July 1793
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* subperiod 1: ("*real bills* period): January 1791 to July 1793
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* subperiod 2: ("terror"): August 1793 - July 1794
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plt.show()
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```
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Now let's regress inflation on real balances during the **real bills** period and plot the regression
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Now let's regress inflation on real balances during the *real bills* period and plot the regression
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line.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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The regression line in {numref}`fr_fig104c` shows that large increases in real balances of
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assignats (paper money) were accompanied by only modest rises in the price level, an outcome in line
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with the **real bills** theory.
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with the *real bills* theory.
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During this period, assignats were claims on church lands.
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