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Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/cagan_ree.md
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We'll use linear algebra first to explain and then do some experiments with a "monetarist theory of price levels".
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Economists call it a "monetary" or "monetarist" theory of price levels because effects on price levels occur via a central banks's decisions to print money supply.
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Economists call it a "monetary" or "monetarist" theory of price levels because effects on price levels occur via a central bank's decisions to print money supply.
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* a goverment's fiscal policies determine whether its _expenditures_ exceed its _tax collections_
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* if its expenditures exceed its tax collections, the government can instruct the central bank to cover the difference by _printing money_
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Such a theory of price levels was described by Thomas Sargent and Neil Wallace in chapter 5 of
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{cite}`sargent2013rational`, which reprints a 1981 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis article entitled "Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic".
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Sometimes this theory is also called a "fiscal theory of price levels" to emphasize the importance of fisal deficits in shaping changes in the money supply.
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Sometimes this theory is also called a "fiscal theory of price levels" to emphasize the importance of fiscal deficits in shaping changes in the money supply.
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The theory has been extended, criticized, and applied by John Cochrane {cite}`cochrane2023fiscal`.
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The "monetarist" or "fiscal theory of price levels" asserts that
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* to _start_ a persistent inflation the government beings persistently to run a money-financed government deficit
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* to _start_ a persistent inflation the government begins persistently to run a money-financed government deficit
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* to _stop_ a persistent inflation the government stops persistently running a money-financed government deficit
Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/cons_smooth.md
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In this lecture, we'll study what is often called the "consumption-smoothing model" using matrix multiplication and matrix inversion, the same tools that we used in this QuantEcon lecture {doc}`present values <pv>`.
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Formulas presented in {doc}`present value formulas<pv>` are at the core of the consumptionsmoothing model because we shall use them to define a consumer's "human wealth".
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Formulas presented in {doc}`present value formulas<pv>` are at the core of the consumption-smoothing model because we shall use them to define a consumer's "human wealth".
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The key idea that inspired Milton Friedman was that a person's non-financial income, i.e., his or
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her wages from working, could be viewed as a dividend stream from that person's ''human capital''
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## Analysis
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As usual, we'll start with by importing some Python modules.
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As usual, we'll start by importing some Python modules.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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import numpy as np
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By **smoother** we mean as close as possible to being constant over time.
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The preference for smooth consumption paths that is built into the model gives it the name "consumptionsmoothing model".
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The preference for smooth consumption paths that is built into the model gives it the name "consumption-smoothing model".
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Let's dive in and do some calculations that will help us understand how the model works.
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\sum_{t=0}^T R^{-t} c_t = a_0 + h_0.
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$$ (eq:budget_intertemp)
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Equation {eq}`eq:budget_intertemp` says that the present value of the consumption stream equals the sum of finanical and non-financial (or human) wealth.
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Equation {eq}`eq:budget_intertemp` says that the present value of the consumption stream equals the sum of financial and non-financial (or human) wealth.
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Robert Hall {cite}`Hall1978` showed that when $\beta R = 1$, a condition Milton Friedman had also assumed, it is "optimal" for a consumer to smooth consumption by setting
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Equation {eq}`eq:conssmoothing` is the consumption-smoothing model in a nutshell.
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## Mechanics of Consumption smoothing model
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## Mechanics of consumption-smoothing model
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As promised, we'll provide step-by-step instructions on how to use linear algebra, readily implemented in Python, to compute all objects in play in the consumption-smoothing model.
In this section we decribe how a consumption sequence would optimally respond to different sequences sequences of non-financial income.
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In this section we describe how a consumption sequence would optimally respond to different sequences sequences of non-financial income.
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First we create a function `plot_cs` that generate graphs for different instances of the consumptionsmoothing model `cs_model`.
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First we create a function `plot_cs` that generates graphs for different instances of the consumption-smoothing model `cs_model`.
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This will help us avoid rewriting code to plot outcomes for different non-financial income sequences.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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def plot_cs(model, # consumptionsmoothing model
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def plot_cs(model, # consumption-smoothing model
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a0, # initial financial wealth
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y_seq # non-financial income process
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):
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plt.show()
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```
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In the experiments below, please study how consumption and financial asset sequences vary accross different sequences for non-financial income.
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In the experiments below, please study how consumption and financial asset sequences vary across different sequences for non-financial income.
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#### Experiment 1: one-time gain/loss
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def welfare_rel(ξ1, ϕ):
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"""
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Compute welfare of variation sequence
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for given ϕ, ξ1 with a consumptionsmoothing model
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for given ϕ, ξ1 with a consumption-smoothing model
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"""
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cvar_seq = compute_variation(cs_model, ξ1=ξ1,
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In particular, it **lowers** the government expenditure multiplier relative to one implied by
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the original Keynesian consumption function presented in {doc}`geometric series <geom_series>`.
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Friedman's work opened the door to an enlighening literature on the aggregate consumption function and associated government expenditure multipliers that
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Friedman's work opened the door to an enlightening literature on the aggregate consumption function and associated government expenditure multipliers that
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remains active today.
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## Appendix: solving difference equations with linear algebra
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In the preceding sections we have used linear algebra to solve a consumptionsmoothing model.
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In the preceding sections we have used linear algebra to solve a consumption-smoothing model.
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The same tools from linear algebra -- matrix multiplication and matrix inversion -- can be used to study many other dynamic models.
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```
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### Secondorder difference equation
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### Second-order difference equation
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A second-order linear difference equation for $\{y_t\}_{t=0}^T$ is
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```{exercise}
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:label: consmooth_ex2
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As an exercise, we ask you to represent and solve a **thirdorder linear difference equation**.
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As an exercise, we ask you to represent and solve a **third-order linear difference equation**.
$B$ is irreducible but not primitive since there are always zeros in either principal diagonal or secondary diagonal.
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```
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We can see that if a matrix is primitive, then it implies the matrix is irreducible but not vice versa.
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Now let's step back to the primitive matrices part of the Perron-Frobenius Theorem
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Now let's step back to the primitive matrices part of the Perron-Frobenius theorem
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```{prf:Theorem} Continous of Perron-Frobenius Theorem
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:label: con-perron-frobenius
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$ r(A)^{-m} A^m$ converges to $v w^{\top}$ when $m \rightarrow \infty$. The matrix $v w^{\top}$ is called the **Perron projection** of $A$.
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```
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#### Example 1: Primitive matrix
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#### Example 1: primitive matrix
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Consider the following primitive matrix $B$:
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eig(B)
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```
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Now let's give some examples to see if the claims of the Perron-Frobenius Theorem hold for the primitive matrix $B$:
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Now let's give some examples to see if the claims of the Perron-Frobenius theorem hold for the primitive matrix $B$:
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1. The dominant eigenvalue is real-valued and non-negative.
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2. All other eigenvalues have absolute values strictly less than the dominant eigenvalue.
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The result shows that the matrix is not primitive as it is not everywhere positive.
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These examples show how the Perron-Frobenius Theorem relates to the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of positive matrices and the convergence of the power of matrices.
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These examples show how the Perron-Frobenius theorem relates to the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of positive matrices and the convergence of the power of matrices.
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In fact we have already seen the theorem in action before in {ref}`the Markov chain lecture <mc1_ex_1>`.
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(spec_markov)=
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#### Example 2: Connection to Markov chains
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#### Example 2: connection to Markov chains
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We are now prepared to bridge the languages spoken in the two lectures.
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A primitive matrix is both irreducible and aperiodic.
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So Perron-Frobenius Theorem explains why both {ref}`Imam and Temple matrix <mc_eg3>` and [Hamilton matrix](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamiltonian_matrix) converge to a stationary distribution, which is the Perron projection of the two matrices
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So Perron-Frobenius theorem explains why both {ref}`Imam and Temple matrix <mc_eg3>` and [Hamilton matrix](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamiltonian_matrix) converge to a stationary distribution, which is the Perron projection of the two matrices
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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P = np.array([[0.68, 0.12, 0.20],
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This can be proven using [Gershgorin Circle Theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gershgorin_circle_theorem),
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but it is out of the scope of this lecture.
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So by the statement (6) of Perron-Frobenius Theorem, $\lambda_i<1$ for all $i<n$, and $\lambda_n=1$ when $P$ is primitive.
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So by the statement (6) of Perron-Frobenius theorem, $\lambda_i<1$ for all $i<n$, and $\lambda_n=1$ when $P$ is primitive.
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Hence, after taking the Euclidean norm deviation, we obtain
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